Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
